The scary growth: The numbers confirm what Nagelsmann has been complaining about for weeks

Munich – Julian Nagelsmann’s virtually absurd scenario initially of his second season as Bayern coach. After three match days within the Bundesliga, the season obtained off to the most effective begin within the membership’s historical past – after seven video games it was the worst in twelve years. A dramatic collapse.

Bayern are with no win in 4 video games: Nagelsmann appears to be dropping

The query arises: how did the scenario deteriorate so rapidly? In their quest for solutions, gamers, coaches and officers alike have all the time come to the identical conclusion: Taking benefit merely is not sufficient. AZ carried out an in depth evaluation of Opta, a statistical service supplier. The numbers not solely confirm Nagelsman, however even present a pointy decline.

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FC Bayern: Massive drop in probabilities

Basically, Bayern’s Bundesliga season might be divided into two phases. On match days one to 3, Bayern acted coolly in entrance of aim, with opponents taking quick and small photographs. And on match days from 4 to seven, when the aim is carelessly overrun. If you examine the 2 intervals, a transparent discontinuity turns into obvious when it comes to capability utilization.

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To put it in numbers: Chance conversions dropped from 29 % within the first interval (second greatest within the Bundesliga) to a depressing six % within the second interval (collectively worst with backside aspect VfL Bochum).

“Bayern” created eleven nice alternatives and didn’t concede a single aim!

Even extra troubling is the view of the usage of fundamental options: In the primary three matchdays, the Munich crew produced 17 of them and transformed eight – a greater than first rate 47 %. There had been at the very least eleven massive probabilities within the final 4 match days, however not a single one was taken!

In truth, Bayern have carried out properly in entrance of the field within the first half of the season, as a take a look at the so-called Expected Goals worth makes clear. This gives data on what number of targets it could take to acquire a statistical consequence from the sum of the corresponding options. At Bayern, it was 9.3 over the primary three matchdays, however a complete of 15 objectives had been scored. So you scored six objectives greater than it is best to have.

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Bayern's goalkeeper Christian Fruchtl before the start of the game.

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Here, too, a significant drop-off because of the second part of the season is clear. In the final 4 video games, the “anticipated objectives” worth was 8.2. However, the consequence was solely 4 objectives – lower than half.

Nagelsmann: Can you win video games? “It’s really fairly easy”

Those are numbers that are not actually value it for gamers of their high quality. Nagelsmann additionally criticized the very poor probabilities after the sport in Augsburg. “We have to make use of 4 particular person conditions towards the goalkeeper to win matches. If we do not try this, we can’t win. It’s so simple as that,” the 35-year-old stated.

You cannot go towards him there. The numbers do not lie…

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